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2022年8月
2022年8月24日 拜登政府宣布 它将为某些借款人取消高达2万美元的联邦学生债务. 收入低于125美元的借款人,000元或250元,000名联合申报人有资格被取消. Borrowers who received Pell grants at some point are eligible to have their debts cancelled up to $20,000, 所有其他借款人都有资格获得10美元,000年取消了.
我们使用行政大通银行和征信局的数据,000 student debt holders to estimate how the benefits of this cancellation program might be distributed by household income and borrower 比赛 和种族.1
我们发现:
- Up to 34 percent of all debt is eligible to be cancelled, or $549 billion out of a total of $1.62万亿美元的未偿联邦债务.
- For every dollar of cancellation received by households in the top 40 percent of the income distribution (more than $76,000), 收入最低的40%的家庭(不到52美元),000)收到$0.68. 假设所有借贷者都在125美元之间,000元及250元,000的收入是双重申报者, 我们的数据表明，对于这个收入范围内的绝大多数借款人来说，哪种情况是正确的. 如果我们假设这个范围内的所有借款人都是单一申报人, 然后低收入家庭得到1美元.高收入家庭每收到1美元，就有22美元被取消.2
图1:收入越高的家庭获得的取消美元略多, 但低收入家庭的债务更有可能被完全取消.
- 低收入家庭的债务更有可能被完全取消, primarily because lower income households tend to hold less debt relative to higher income households.
- 平均债务被取消 for all income groups is between $8,800 and $10,000 (see Figure 2). 低收入家庭成为佩尔奖学金获得者的可能性略高, 但不太可能有超过10美元的未偿债务,000.
图2:被取消的债务平均在9美元之间,000元及10元,在不同的收入范围内增加了000美元, 但黑人家庭的比例相对较高.
- 负债的黑人家庭平均收入约为11美元,000元取消, 而西班牙裔和白人家庭的平均收入为9美元,500美元和9美元,000, 分别.
- The average 黑色的 household benefits relatively more from cancellation because 黑色的 households hold more student debt relative to their share of the population. 美国黑人家庭的平均收入为2美元.取消次数是普通白人家庭的5倍(参见图3). The distribution of cancellation dollars roughly follows the distribution of debt holdings (see Figure 4).
Figure 3: 黑色的 and 拉美裔 households receive more cancellation relative to their population share.
Figure 4: The distribution of cancellation dollars by 比赛 和种族 is proportional to the distribution of debt held by each group.
1.我们的数据涵盖2016年. We reweight our sample so the resulting income distribution matches the income distribution of households with non-deferred student debt in the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances. We also restrict our sample in several ways to ensure the borrower’s 追逐 accounts are their primary accounts (see Greig and 沙利文 2021). Our measure of borrower income is the sum of all inflows into the borrower’s 追逐 accounts, 不包括其他帐户的转帐.g.(从储蓄或经纪账户转入支票账户). 这是一个衡量净收入或实得收入的指标, which we use to construct a measure of gross income by assuming an income tax withholding rate of between 13% and 20%, 视收入而定, 工资税率为7%.65%. 收入扣缴比例从13%到20%呈线性变化，税率为125美元,000美元的净收入，此后保持20%不变. Our data for 比赛 和种族 is taken from public voter rolls in Florida, 乔治亚州, and Louisiana. All analyses of 比赛 effects are restricted to those states with a total sample if 10,800 borrowers. 参见Farrell, Greig和沙利文(2020)对该样本的进一步讨论. Our joint data set does not include information on whether a borrower received a Pell grant. 为了解释不同收入的佩尔奖学金获得者的差异, 比赛, 和种族, 我们使用的数据来自学士学位和超越2008/2012调查, 哪家公司提供学生债务余额的数据, 佩尔recipiency, 和毕业后四年的收入. We then randomly assign 佩尔recipiency within our income groups such that the 佩尔recipiency rates within each group match Baccalaureate and Beyond. 使用CPI系列CUUR0000SA0，所有收入数字都被压缩到2021年的美元.
2.所有其他结果, 包括取消是如何按种族和民族分配的, are substantively the same whether we assume these borrowers are dual- or single-filers.
Cominole, M.纽约州里奇(Ritchie.S., & 库尼J. (2020). 2008/18学士学位及以上纵向研究(B&B:08/18)数据文件文件 道理,2021 - 141年). U.S. 教育部. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 研究所 of Education Sciences. 摘自8/24/2022 http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch.
法雷尔、戴安娜、菲奥娜·格雷格和丹尼尔·M. 沙利文. 2020. “学生贷款债务:谁来偿还??澳博官方网站app研究所. http://www.bushmancraft.com/corporate/institute/household-debt-student-loan-debt.
格雷格，菲奥娜和丹尼尔M. 沙利文. 2021. 谁能从学生债务减免中受益?澳博官方网站app研究所. http://www.bushmancraft.com/institute/research/household-debt/who-benefits-from-student-debt-cancellation.
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