我们不再支持这个浏览器. 使用受支持的浏览器将提供更好的体验.
请 更新浏览器.
2018年6月
2018年6月 美国劳工统计局公布了初步结果 从期待已久的2017年临时工人补充(CWS)中, 这是对12年前进行的一次调查的更新. 结果让很多人感到惊讶. It showed a slight decline in the percent of workers whose sole or main job was an alternative work arrangement from 10.2005年7个到10个.1 in 2017.
鉴于人们普遍认为临时工作正在增加，这些结果令人惊讶, 这不仅基于与优步司机的闲聊，还基于硬数据. 卡茨和克鲁格在2015年底的估计，根据与CWS类似的问卷调查，有15人.8%的工人采用替代工作安排，比2005年增加了50%. 税务申报数据分析 shows that the percent of people filing as self-employed or non-farm sole proprietors increased by over 30 percent between 2001 和 2014. 和 澳博官方网站app研究所的文件 a nine-fold increase in the share of adults earning income from the Online Platform Economy (a subset of alternative work arrangements, 包括连接劳动力供给和劳动力需求的在线平台).从2012年底的1%下降到1%.2016年年中为9%.
我们如何使这些发现与CWS结果相一致? 临时工都到哪里去了? 我们提供了几种可能性.
1. Contingent work is generally a secondary source of income that wouldn't have been picked up by the latest CWS analysis of "main" jobs.
CWS的问题是关于他们的主要工作, 那份主要工作是否是某种形式的替代工作安排.1 澳博官方网站app研究所数据 显示绝大多数平台赚钱者将平台作为第二收入来源. Platform income represented less than half of total monthly earnings for two-thirds of those using labor platforms to sell time, 和 for roughly 80 percent of those using capital platforms to lease assets or sell goods (Figure 1). 在一年的时间里， 我们估计 platform earnings represented just 24 percent of total income for labor platform participants 和 10 percent of total income for capital platform participants. 对独立工作者的调查 美联储家庭经济决策调查 和 超级司机 证实这一观点.
Figure 1: Just 33% of labor platform participants 和 19% of capital platform participants relied on platforms for more than 50% of their monthly income
事实上，我们知道人们把平台工作与其他工作结合起来。, 也可能是CWS关注的“主要”工作. 优步司机的可用性在下午6点左右达到峰值, 就在标准工作时间结束后, 优步的应用程序允许司机在去目的地的路上找到车, 比如在他们下班回家的路上. 通过这种方式，新形式的临时工作模糊了休闲和工作之间的界限.
2. An entire business cycle transpired over the 12 years between 2005 和 2017 making these two dates difficult to compare.
在经济周期中， 失业 从4开始.从2006年12月的4%升至10%的高点.2009年10月为0%，然后再次回落. 2005年2月进行统计时，失业率为5%.4%，略高于2017年5月的4%.3%). 这很重要，因为失业 都有关联 降低临时工作安排和替代工作安排的比率. 事实上，我们知道，个人在工作之余，正在从平台上赚取收入. 如图2所示， 我们的文档 that individuals with no evidence of labor income from a traditional source in a given month were more likely to earn income from platforms.
图2:非就业人群更有可能参与网络平台经济*
*劳动平台, 比如Uber或TaskRabbit, 将客户与执行独立任务或项目的自由职业者或临时工联系起来. 资本平台, 比如Airbnb或eBay, 将客户与租赁资产或点对点销售商品的个人联系起来.
如图3所示， 我们的工作 a marked increase between 2012 和 2016 in the percent of platform participants who had another job as the 失业 rate decreased. The key point is that a lower 失业 rate in May 2017 than February 2005 might have contributed to a lower participation in contingent work, 在其他条件相同的情况下.
Figure 3: The share of platform participants with a traditional job increased as the 失业 rate dropped
但在此期间，经济中也出现了其他结构性变化. 其中一些趋势可能有助于更多地参与替代性工作安排. As 由卡茨和克鲁格列举, 其中包括技术进步，这使得临时工作变得更容易, 老龄化的劳动力更有可能成为个体经营者, 以及工作场所的分裂. 其他长期趋势可能已经减缓了临时工作的增长，包括失业 创业放缓 和 小企业就业减少. 换句话说, teasing out whether the contingent workforce grew or shrank relative to what would have been expected if not for these contextual factors is like tracking a feather in a hurricane.
3. 衡量临时工作的增长需要数据点之间随时间的可比性, 在定义不同的情况下，哪个是难以实现的, 数据来源, 和样品.
调查数据，如CWS，表明应急工作是稳定的. 然而, 如上所述, evidence from tax records suggest that an 增加 percent of tax filers are earning income from alternative work arrangements. 我们自己的研究 measuring the percent of adults participating in the Online Platform Economy is more consistent with tax data, 临时性工作有所增长.
The difficulty of measuring growth is exacerbated by respondents' varying interpretations of a survey question which can also change depending on context. A 最近的一篇论文 linking household survey respondents to tax filing data illustrates just how inconsistently people respond in different data sources: just 35 percent of respondents who filed the self-employment (SE) schedule on their taxes reported in the CPS that they are self-employed. 重要的是，这种差异是 增加.2 这意味着, 尽管最近CWS发布了稳定的估计, 它们并不是临时工作水平和趋势的最后定论, 而管理数据则有助于对这幅图进行三角测量.
Our own experience measuring the percent of adults participating in the Online Platform Economy highlights the difficulty in keeping a pulse on this dynamic sector. We sized the Online Platform Economy based on inflows into consumer checking accounts from labor 和 capital platforms. 一开始我们列出了30个平台 截至2015年10月. 对于我们发布的估计 2016年6月仅仅8个月后，我们就将平台扩展到了42个. Later this year the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 plans to publish new estimates on participation in the Online Platform Economy through mid-2018, 我们的名单已经扩展到100多个平台. 重要的是, some of this growth may reflect the migration of previously existing forms of contingent work on to online platforms 和 not necessarily net new growth in alternative work arrangements. 我们期待着探索这些问题并分享我们的结果.
1.The 2017 Contingent Worker Supplement included four new questions about short tasks or jobs individuals found through a mobile app or website 和 were paid through the same app or website. 这些问题的结果尚未公布.
2.This inconsistency also exists in the opposite direction: 49 percent of those who self-identified themselves as self-employed in the CPS filed the SE schedule.
